Brief of the report Grain: World Markets and Trade

OVERVIEW OF THE WHEAT MARKET IN JULY

Global output is forecast to rise this month mainly due to larger crop prospects from Russia, China, Australia and Canada offsetting declines from India, the EU and Argentina. Global consumption forecasts were raised this month, mainly due to adjustments in animal feed use in Australia and Russia. Ending inventory levels are revised downward, mainly in India. Imports were revised up mainly in Morocco, Algeria and Türkiye. Higher adjusted exports from Russia, Australia, Canada, Ukraine and the United States offset declines for the European Union and India. The US seasonal average farm price decreased from $1.25/bushel to $9.25/bushel.

RICE MARKET OVERVIEW IN JULY

Season 2022/23

Global rice production is forecast to be lower this month, down slightly from last year's record, with output falling for India and Bangladesh. Global consumption was slightly higher with increases adjusted for the European Union and the Philippines. Global ending stocks are expected to decline mainly due to declines in India. Imports are forecast to decline with lower demand from Nepal and Indonesia, only partially offset by higher imports to Bangladesh and the European Union.

Season 2021/22

Global rice production is forecast to be slightly higher this month due to a larger crop in Nepal. Global consumption is up, mainly in India, where increased government distribution of rice is offsetting lower distribution of wheat. Global inventories fell mainly due to declines in India, Thailand and Vietnam. Imports are forecast to increase due to higher demand from Bangladesh, the Philippines and Iraq. Exports are forecast to be slightly higher, mainly for India and Thailand.

OVERVIEW OF THE CORN MARKET IN JULY

Season 2022/23

Global corn production is forecast to decline as reduced crops for the European Union, Serbia and the United States exceed gains for Ukraine, Türkiye, Russia and Malawi. Global imports are rising in line with higher forecasts for the European Union. Global exports are rising with larger forecasts for Russia, Serbia and Ukraine more than offsetting declines for the European Union and the United States. The U.S. seasonal average farm price was unchanged at $6.65/bushel.

Season 2021/22

Global corn production is forecast to increase in line with increases for the European Union, Malawi and Bolivia. Global exports are also forecast to increase for Ukraine, Serbia and the EU. Global imports are forecast to decline, with import cuts from Algeria, Morocco, South Korea and Vietnam dwarfing the forecast increase in imports in Canada. The U.S. seasonal average farm price was unchanged at $5.95/bushel.