Soybeans

The September soybean futures contract closed higher than the previous session and is close to $15.25 per bushel, with a range from $14.83 to $15.37 per bushel. The market is currently focusing on the September report from the USDA and the weather patterns in the Midwest of the U.S. over the next two weeks, which will influence price ranges. According to the USDA's August report, soybean production is higher than expected, with the USDA increasing U.S. soybean stocks for the 2021/22 season to 10 million bushels due to reduced exports. The 2022 soybean crop is at 4.531 million bushels compared to 4.435 million bushels last year. Ending stocks for the 2022/23 season are projected at 245 million bushels. Has the increased crop and higher beginning stocks offset this? The USDA estimates world soybean ending stocks for the 2022/23 season at 101.4 million tons compared to 89.7 million tons last year. This increase is attributed to the South American crop. The USDA still estimates China's soybean imports for 2022/23 at 98 million tons, up from 90 million tons this year. The USDA also maintains its estimate for global soybean crush in 2022/23 at nearly a record 327 million tons compared to 323 million tons last year, with exports at 169 million tons this year compared to 153 million tons last year.

Corn

Corn futures prices also increased. The September contract closed near $6.39 per bushel, with a range from $6.16 to $6.40, and the December contract near $6.42 per bushel. The USDA's report showed a reduction in U.S. corn yield for 2022, increased 2021/22 stocks, but lower U.S. stocks. August corn yield was lower than expected and lower than the average over the past three years. U.S. corn for 2021/22 saw an increase of 20 million bushels due to lower FSI usage. The 2022 U.S. corn crop is now at 14.359 million bushels compared to 15.115 million bushels last year. Ending stocks for 2022/23 are at 1.388 million bushels. The lower crop has been offset by lower feed usage and exports. The USDA estimates 2022/23 corn ending stocks at 306.8 million tons compared to 311.8 million tons last year, lower due to the U.S. and EU. EU corn stocks decreased from 68 million tons to 60 million tons, with some estimates as low as 50 million tons. U.S. feed corn usage for 2021/22 is estimated at 5,600 million bushels compared to 5,603 million bushels last year. Ethanol production usage for 2022/23 is estimated at 5,375 million bushels. The USDA estimates 2021/22 corn exports at 2,450 million bushels compared to 2,747 million bushels last year. Exports for 2022/23 are expected to be lower by 25 million bushels at 2,375 million bushels.

Wheat

September wheat closed at $8.06 per bushel. Following the USDA report, September wheat briefly fell back to a 20-day low near $7.93 per bushel, generally remaining within the $7.50 - $8.50 per bushel range. The U.S. wheat crop in the USDA's August report is at 1.783 million bushels compared to 1.781 million bushels in the previous report and 1.646 million bushels last year. The USDA lowered the forecast for U.S. wheat stocks for 2022/23 to 29 million bushels due to higher exports. The USDA estimates global wheat ending stocks for 2022/23 at 267.3 million tons compared to 276.3 million tons last year. The USDA has increased Russia's production forecast to 88 million tons and exports to 42 million tons. Russia's wheat exports in July were only 1.7 million tons compared to 5.7 million tons last year. The USDA also lowered the EU wheat production forecast by 2 million tons to 132.1 million tons and increased China's forecast by 3 million tons to 138 million tons. The USDA also reduced the forecast for Indian wheat by 3 million tons to 103 million tons but kept the exports unchanged at 6.5 million tons.