According to the Mercantile Exchange Of VietNam (MXV), global raw material commodity prices showed mixed trends on June 11. Buying pressure dominated the energy and industrial raw materials sectors. Meanwhile, the metals and agricultural commodities sectors were covered in red. The MXV-Index fluctuated within a narrow range, closing the day with a slight increase of 0.06% to 2,291 points.

With 4 out of 5 commodities closing higher, the energy sector led the market trend on the trading day of June 11. Notably, the MXV Energy Index, which measures the volatility of commodities in the sector, recorded a 5-day winning streak, indicating a relatively stable upward trend in energy prices recently.

Natural Gas Hits 6-Month High, Crude Oil Rises on Consumption Outlook

At the close of trading on June 11, natural gas prices surged by more than 7%, surpassing the $3 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) mark for the first time since November 2023.

According to MXV, natural gas prices received strong buying interest immediately after the North American Electric Reliability Corporation's (NERC) annual report highlighted the increasing risk of energy shortages in several U.S. states due to hotter summer temperatures.

Adding to the support, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its latest estimate raised the 2024 Henry Hub natural gas spot price to $2.46/MMBtu from $2.18/MMBtu in the previous forecast, citing expected lower production and below-average storage injections during the summer.

In another notable development, oil prices continued to rise to their highest levels since the beginning of June. Two major reports in the oil market in June have significantly influenced price movements. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its forecast for global oil demand growth this year, while OPEC maintained its relatively strong growth forecast for 2024, contributing to the support for oil prices. By the end of the day, WTI crude oil prices increased by 0.21% to 77.90 USD/barrel. Brent crude rose by 0.36% to 81.92 USD/barrel.

Specifically, in the June Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) report, the EIA raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 to 1.10 million barrels per day from the previous estimate of 900,000 barrels per day, averaging 103 million barrels per day. For 2025, the EIA also forecasted that global oil demand could rise to 104.5 million barrels per day, slightly higher than the previous forecast of 104.3 million barrels per day.

Regarding supply, the EIA currently expects global oil production to reach around 102.6 million barrels per day, compared to the forecast of 102.8 million barrels per day in May. This adjustment was made because the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) announced plans to extend voluntary production cuts into the third quarter of this year.

Overall, for 2024, the EIA stated that the market would be in a deficit of about 320,000 barrels per day. This has boosted buying interest in the market.

Also, yesterday, OPEC's June oil market report maintained its 2024 forecast for positive oil demand growth, citing expectations for increased travel in the second half of the year. Specifically, OPEC expects global oil demand growth in 2024 to reach 2.2 million barrels per day, unchanged from the May estimate, with the yearly average reaching 104.46 million barrels per day.

Early this morning Vietnam time, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that commercial oil inventories decreased by 2.43 million barrels in the week ending June 7, as the peak driving season began. This also provided momentum for oil prices to continue rising.

Wheat Prices End 9-Day Decline

The agricultural market showed mixed trends. Corn and soybean prices reversed and weakened. Meanwhile, wheat prices were a bright spot, recording a strong increase of more than 3% yesterday, ending a nine-day consecutive decline. MXV reported that concerns about the crop situation in Russia returned and were the main factors that boosted buying interest in the market.

The Russian Grain Union (RGU) reported that May frosts caused damage to approximately 15-30% of the country's winter grain areas. The extent of the damage varies by region and is significantly higher than the 1% forecast by the Russian Ministry of Agriculture. Previously, the agency estimated that about 1 million hectares of crops—equivalent to 1.2% of the planting area for the 2024 harvest—were damaged. Additionally, the weather outlook in Russia in the near future is not very favorable, and the above figure may continue to increase.

In the domestic market, the offer prices for Australian, EU, and South American wheat to Vietnam remain relatively stable. As recorded yesterday, June 11, at Vung Tau port, the price of June-delivery wheat fluctuated around 7,650 - 7,700 VND/kg.

Source: MXV