Data from the Mercantile Exchange Of VietNam (MXV) shows that at the close of trading yesterday (April 2), buying pressure dominated the global commodity market with 18 commodities increasing in price and 13 commodities decreasing in price, supporting the MXV-Index to rise by 0.77% to 2,265 points, the highest in more than 6 months. Among these, the coffee, metals, and energy groups simultaneously recorded many commodities reaching peak prices in several weeks.

At the same time, the total trading value recorded a strong increase of nearly 40%, reaching 8.3 trillion VND, the highest in 3 weeks. Capital continued to focus on the agricultural sector, accounting for nearly 38% of the total trading volume across the market. Additionally, trading in the energy and industrial sectors also stabilized after two consecutive public holidays.

Robusta Coffee Sets New 30-Year High

The two coffee commodities received positive buying pressure, leading the market trend yesterday. On April 2, the price of May futures Robusta coffee on the ICE US Exchange surged by 5.29% to $3,663 per ton, setting a new 30-year high. Similarly, May futures Arabica coffee on the ICE EU Exchange also saw a strong increase of 3.1%, closing at $4,359 per ton, the highest in three months.

Amid tight production in Vietnam driving coffee prices up since the beginning of this year, the latest data shows that the supply outlook in Brazil has not met expectations, further contributing to the continued rise in coffee prices.

Hedgepoint recently lowered the estimate for Brazil's 2024-2025 coffee crop production to 67.46 million bags, a decrease of 4.9% from the previous forecast, with the estimated production of Robusta for the 2024-2025 crop decreasing by 1.43 million bags.

Previously, Rabobank estimated the new crop production of the South American nation at 69.8 million bags, not reaching the potential of a bumper crop in the biennial cycle. Specifically for Robusta, the production of this bitter-tasting coffee from the South American country is expected to remain unchanged from the previous crop, at only 23.3 million bags.

Additionally, the Dollar Index decreased by 0.20%, which previously dragged down the USD/BRL exchange rate while coffee was being traded. The declining exchange rate is expected to cause Brazilian farmers to limit coffee sales, thereby increasing buying pressure on the market.

In the domestic market, as of April 2, the price of raw coffee beans in the Central Highlands and southern provinces has approached the 100,000 VND/kg mark, ranging from 98,200 to 98,800 VND/kg. Given that Brazil's supply is unlikely to compensate for the shortage from Vietnam, MXV believes that domestic coffee purchase prices have ample room to set new records above 100,000 VND/kg in the near future.

Silver Prices Hit 3-Month High

At the end of the trading day on April 2, all metal commodities except LME lead increased in price. For precious metals, amid the weakening USD and investors increasing their holdings of safe-haven assets due to escalating geopolitical conflicts, silver and platinum had a strong trading session with significant gains. Silver surged by 3.39% to $25.9 per ounce, the highest since early December last year. This session also marked the strongest increase in silver prices since October 2023. Platinum prices rose by 2.51% to $934.3 per ounce, the highest in over two weeks.

According to Reuters, Israeli fighter jets bombed the Iranian embassy in Syria on Monday. This could escalate tensions in the Middle East, driving capital flows into safe-haven investments, including precious metals.

Additionally, the weakening USD further strengthened the demand for precious metals. The Dollar Index fell by 0.2% to 104.75 points, breaking a four-session winning streak due to negative US employment data. Specifically, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the Department of Labor reported that job openings in the US, a measure of labor demand, reached 8.756 million at the end of February, lower than expected, while January's figures were revised down to 8.748 million.

For base metals, two key commodities, COMEX copper and iron ore, have maintained their upward price momentum since China announced positive economic data, boosting consumption prospects. At the close of the session, copper and iron ore prices increased by 0.54% and 0.23%, respectively, to $8,973.91 per ton and $101.56 per ton. This is also the highest closing price for copper in the past two weeks.

However, the upward momentum of copper prices faced resistance from some positive supply news. Specifically, in Chile, which accounts for nearly a quarter of the world's copper supply, the country's mining output is beginning to recover after many months of prolonged decline, with total national mining production increasing by 7.7% year-on-year in February. The largest contributor to this increase was copper production, which rose by 9.95% to 420,242 tons.

Source: MXV