According to the Mercantile Exchange of Vietnam (MXV), the global commodity markets showed mixed and fluctuating trends on the first day of the week (September 30). Notably, in the industrial materials market, cocoa prices plunged, and sugar prices continued to drop, pulling down the overall index of the entire group significantly. Meanwhile, after the release of the grain stock report showing lower-than-expected inventory levels, the agricultural commodity market experienced strong buying interest, with many items seeing price increases. At the close of trading, the MXV-Index dropped slightly by 0.21%, settling at 2,205 points.

Cocoa prices plummeted 7% due to favorable weather in Côte d'Ivoire

After five consecutive sessions of gains last week, cocoa prices started the new trading week with a sharp decline of nearly 7% compared to the reference price. Favorable weather conditions for cocoa production in Côte d'Ivoire, the world's largest producer, put pressure on prices during yesterday's session.

Many cocoa farmers in Côte d'Ivoire reported that most of the country’s major cocoa-growing regions had received sufficient rainfall, which is crucial for the main cocoa season running from October to March.

In other notable movements in industrial raw materials, sugar prices fell an additional 0.5%, marking the third consecutive session of decline. The forecast of more favorable weather for sugarcane production in October continued to exert downward pressure on prices. According to Brazil's climate forecasting agency, a cold air mass is expected to form starting October 7, bringing rain to most of the South-Central region, the largest sugarcane-growing area in Brazil. This weather change is expected to lead to a more positive outlook for sugarcane production and sugar output in Brazil.

Meanwhile, coffee prices were quite volatile in the first trading session of the week, despite ongoing drought conditions in Brazil's main coffee-growing regions, which show no signs of ending in early October. Arabica coffee prices edged up by 0.41%, while Robusta coffee prices rose by 0.3% compared to the reference price.

Weather forecasts from Brazil predict that the South and Southeast regions will continue to experience higher-than-normal temperatures by 2-6°C over the next 10 days. Rainfall is also expected to be 15-50 mm below normal in the Southeast and most of the South. The continuation of these hot and dry conditions is unfavorable for coffee crop development.

In the domestic market, as of this morning (October 1), prices for unprocessed coffee beans in the Central Highlands and southern provinces remained above 120,000 VND, two to three times higher than the same period last year. Prices currently range from 121,300 to 122,300 VND/kg, an increase of about 200 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

Corn and wheat prices continued to rise after important reports

At the end of the first trading session of the week, corn prices saw an increase of more than 1.5%, continuing last week's upward trend. After a period of cautious fluctuation, the market received strong buying support following lower-than-expected figures in the grain inventory report.

In this report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) noted that total corn stocks as of September 1 stood at 1.76 billion bushels, on the lower end of market expectations, although still up 29% compared to the same period last year. This report is crucial as it determines the final stock level for the 2023-2024 crop year as well as the beginning stocks for the 2024-2025 crop year in the U.S. If there are no significant changes, these figures could lead the USDA to reduce 2024-2025 starting stocks by 52 million bushels in the October WASDE report. The outlook for lower inventories was a key factor driving strong buying in the market yesterday.

Additionally, the USDA's Export Inspections report showed that corn shipments for the week ending September 26 reached 1.14 million tons, almost unchanged from the previous week but nearly double the level of the same period last year. Most of the corn was sold to the U.S.’s traditional customers, such as Mexico, Colombia, and Japan. Less than a month into the 2024-2025 crop year, total U.S. corn exports have reached 3.33 million tons, up from 2.69 million tons last year. This positive export outlook has supported higher prices.

Similarly, wheat prices rose slightly by 0.5% yesterday. The market remained volatile as the USDA's Small Grains Annual Summary report provided somewhat mixed data.

The USDA forecast total U.S. wheat production at 1.971 billion bushels, slightly above the market’s average estimate of 1.966 billion bushels but lower than the most recent forecast. Winter wheat production is expected to reach 1.349 billion bushels, below the average projection. These mixed figures contributed to the market's choppiness following the report's release.

In addition, consultancy firm IKAR reported that FOB prices for 12.5% protein wheat at Russia's Black Sea ports rose by 5 USD/ton last week, reaching 222 USD/ton, due to poor weather forecasts and increased shipping volumes.

Source: MXV