Corn

The Grain Stocks report showed an unexpected corn stock of 1.76 billion bushels in both on- and off-farm storage as of September 1. This figure is 400 million bushels higher than last year, but 84 million bushels lower than the average market estimate, and down from over 1 billion bushels in the September WASDE report.

The Crop Progress report, released after the market close, indicated that 96% of U.S. corn has reached the dent stage, and 75% has matured. The harvest is estimated to be 21% complete, which is 3% faster than the 5-year average. Condition ratings dropped by 1% to 64% good/excellent (gd/ex), while the Brugler500 index fell by 1 point to 363.

Export Inspection data revealed that 1.14 million tons (44.8 million bushels) of corn were exported in the week ending September 26. Although slightly lower than the previous week, this figure is 70.13% higher than the same week last year. This brought the total exports for the fiscal year to 3.33 million tons (131.1 million bushels), up 26.7% compared to the start of last year.

Brazil's first corn crop was estimated to be 30% planted in the Central-South region, according to AgRural.

The settlement price for December Corn futures on October 1 was 424.75 cents/bushel, up 2% from the previous session.

Soybeans

The USDA reported a private export sale of 116,000 tons of soybeans to China for the 2024/25 marketing year.

The quarterly Grain Stocks report from NASS recorded U.S. soybean stocks as of September 1 at 342 million bushels, 9 million bushels lower than the Reuters survey estimate and only 2 million bushels above the September WASDE report. However, it was still 78 million bushels higher than the same period last year, as expected.

Crop Progress data showed 81% of the U.S. soybean crop had dropped leaves, with 26% of the harvest complete, both 8 percentage points ahead of the average pace. Condition ratings remained unchanged at 64% good/excellent (gd/ex), with the Brugler500 index steady at 362.

Export Inspection data from the USDA showed 675,749 tons of U.S. soybeans were exported in the week ending September 26. This was down 0.3% from the same week last year but up 33.4% from the previous week. Total accumulated exports reached 1.922 million tons (70.62 million bushels), trailing last year by 3.4%.

AgRural estimated that Brazil’s soybean crop was only 2% planted as of last Thursday, down from 5.2% at the same time last year.

The settlement price on October 1 was 1,057 cents/bushel, down 1% from the previous session.

Wheat

The annual Small Grains Summary report showed total wheat production at nearly 2 billion bushels, down 11 million bushels from the August Crop Production report, but 5 million bushels above estimates. Winter wheat production was down 12 million bushels from August, totaling 1 billion bushels, which aligned with estimates.

Hard Red Winter Wheat (HRW) reached 770 million bushels, slightly above the market average but down 6 million bushels from August. Soft Red Winter Wheat (SRW) remained at 342 million bushels, matching both market and August estimates. White Winter Wheat production totaled 236 million bushels, down 7 million bushels from August. Spring Wheat production rose 2 million bushels above estimates but fell 2 million bushels from August, reaching 542 million bushels. Durum Wheat production increased by 3 million bushels from August, totaling 80 million bushels.

The quarterly Grain Stocks report indicated 2 billion bushels of wheat in storage as of September 1, 218 million bushels higher than the same time last year but 7 million bushels below market estimates.

Crop Progress data showed that 39% of the winter wheat crop was planted, with 14% emergence, both 1% ahead of the average pace.

The weekly Export Inspection report showed 537,000 tons (28.4 million bushels) of wheat exported in the week ending September 26. This was slightly below the same week last year and 25.7% lower than the previous week. Year-to-date exports totaled 8.23 million tons (302.6 million bushels), up 35.16% compared to the same period last year.

The settlement price for December Wheat futures on October 1, 2024, was 584 cents/bushel, up 1% from the previous session.

Sources: Compiled data