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Reuters reported that investment bank JP Morgan forecasts a global refined copper deficit increasing to 160,000 tons by 2026, with average copper prices potentially reaching around $11,000/ton next year.

Following U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to initiate a national security investigation potentially leading to new tariffs on copper imports, the bank believes that a minimum 10% tariff on refined copper and copper products will likely be imposed by the end of Q3, with a significant risk of higher tariffs reaching up to 25%.

“The potential for surplus stockpiling in the U.S. in the coming months before copper tariffs take effect could lead to shortages in the rest of the world… this sets the stage for our projected sharp price rally in the second half of 2025 to $10,400/ton,” JP Morgan noted.

The bank also predicts that China's copper demand growth will slow from 4% last year to 2.5% this year, adding that “this remains the biggest downside risk to our forecast for a tightening copper market.”

However, JP Morgan expects global copper demand growth to ease only slightly, from 3.2% in 2024 to 2.9% in 2025.

The global refined copper market recorded a deficit of 22,000 tons in December, compared to a 124,000-ton deficit in November, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG).

Meanwhile, Citi stated in a note last week that it expects a 25% tariff on copper to be implemented in Q4 2025, following President Trump’s executive order.