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Positive U.S. Economic Data Heats Up Metal and Energy Markets

16 thg 8, 2024

According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), after two consecutive declining sessions, the MXV-Index unexpectedly surged by 0.92% to 2,119 points during yesterday's trading session (August 15). Buying pressure dominated the global commodity markets, with a strong bullish trend covering the metal and energy sectors. A series of positive U.S. economic data recently released has bolstered investor optimism.


The risk of a U.S. recession has eased, prompting a strong inflow of capital back into the metal markets.


Closing the session, except for iron ore, all metal commodities saw a price increase after the U.S. released a series of important economic data, alleviating fears of a recession in the world’s largest economy. In the precious metals group, silver prices surged by 3.95% to $28.42 per ounce, completely erasing the losses from the previous two sessions. This was also the largest gain in silver prices in nearly two months. Platinum prices also rebounded after two consecutive losing sessions, rising by 3.82% to $965.1 per ounce, the highest level in the past two weeks.


The market's focus during yesterday's session was on two key U.S. economic data releases. Specifically, according to a report released by the U.S. Department of Labor, the number of jobless claims fell to 227,000 in the week ending August 10. This figure was 9,000 lower than expected and the lowest in a month. Additionally, data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce showed that retail sales increased by 1% in July, beating market expectations of a 0.4% increase and reaching the highest level since February 2023.


These positive economic data helped restore confidence in the market. Earlier this month, concerns about a U.S. recession had caused panic among investors, leading to a continuous wave of red across global financial markets. As these concerns eased, investors reallocated funds back into the market, supporting a strong rebound in precious metal prices.


In the base metals group, prices also benefited as macroeconomic pressures gradually eased. COMEX copper prices led the group's gains, rising 2.75% to $9,151 per ton, the highest level in the past two weeks.


Adding to the price support, the ongoing strike at the world's largest copper mine, Escondida, shows no signs of ending. The labor union at the mine recently announced that the strike had completely halted operations at the Los Colorados copper production plant.


Therefore, if the strike continues, copper output at this mine could drop significantly, leading to a tightening of global copper supply. Previously, in 2017, over 2,300 workers participated in a 44-day strike at this very mine, severely affecting production and driving copper prices higher during that period.


Oil Prices Jump Nearly 2%


Oil prices reversed course and rose in yesterday's trading session after U.S. economic data alleviated concerns about a recession in the country. However, worries about slower global demand capped the price gains. By the end of the session, WTI crude oil prices increased by 1.53% to $78.16 per barrel, while Brent crude oil prices rose by 1.6% to $81.04 per barrel.


Data showed that U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in July, while another report indicated a smaller-than-expected rise in the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales growth in the U.S. for July rose by 1% from the previous month, marking a recovery after a 0.2% decline in the previous month and surpassing the market forecast of a 0.4% increase.**


Meanwhile, according to the U.S. Department of Labor, initial jobless claims in the country reached only 227,000 last week, contrary to analysts' expectations of a rise to 236,000. This positive data has fueled price increases in the market.


However, the market's upward momentum was somewhat limited by bleak economic data from China. Specifically, according to the latest data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the country's economic outlook remains subdued due to weak domestic demand. Industrial production growth reached 5.1%, falling short of the market's expectation of 5.2%. This is also the lowest level since March 2024.


Furthermore, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), China's diesel demand dropped by 11% year-over-year to 3.9 million barrels per day in June, the largest percentage decline since July 2021. The decrease was attributed to a weak real estate sector that has slowed economic growth, alongside liquefied natural gas (LNG) increasingly replacing diesel in heavy-duty trucks.


According to MXV

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