According to the Mercantile Exchange Of VietNam (MXV), strong buying pressure returned to the global commodity markets during the first trading session of the week (September 9). Most commodities regained positive momentum. Notably, prices of several items in the industrial and metal sectors saw significant increases: cocoa prices rose nearly 5.6%; Arabica coffee up 2.5%, Robusta coffee up nearly 4%, and platinum rose more than 3%. At the close, the MXV-Index rose 0.86% to 2,078 points.

Coffee prices rebound to high levels

Coffee prices soared at the start of the week as the market reacted to fundamental support. Accordingly, Arabica coffee prices rose nearly 4%, recovering losses from the previous session; Robusta coffee prices increased by 2.5%, reaching close to USD 4,900/ton.

Brokerage firm Hedgepoint Global Market noted that many Brazilian farmers are delaying selling Robusta coffee, expecting prices to rise further. Brazil has sold a record amount of Robusta this year due to supply shortages from Vietnam. Previously, some analysts also indicated that Indonesia, the world’s third-largest Robusta coffee producer, has reduced the amount of coffee supplied to the market in anticipation of higher prices.

In Vietnam, the end-of-season supply shortage is evident through weak export activity. The General Statistics Office estimates that Vietnam exported nearly 73,000 tons in August, down from 76,000 tons in the previous month. Cumulative exports for the first 8 months of the year were less than 1.1 million tons, down more than 12% compared to the same period in 2023.

Additionally, concerns remain about the supply outlook for the next coffee crop in Brazil due to prolonged drought. Weather forecasts suggest that over the next 10 days, the southeastern region—Brazil’s main coffee-growing area—will continue to experience below-average rainfall of less than 30mm. Temperatures are expected to remain above 20°C, with some areas exceeding 30°C. Prolonged water shortages and heat may reduce yields and coffee production in 2025. Observers previously predicted that production could decrease by up to 20%.

In Vietnam, as of the morning of September 10, coffee prices in the Central Highlands and southern provinces have also increased in line with global prices, ranging from VND 119,000 to VND 119,500/kg, an increase of VND 600 to 1,200/kg compared to the weekend.

Following the same trend as coffee, cocoa prices recorded their third consecutive increase, rising 5.6% in the previous session. Despite signals of improved production in Ivory Coast and Ghana, the supply-demand balance remains in deficit. Exporters estimate that, from the start of the season until September 8, cocoa arrivals in Ivory Coast have dropped 25.8% compared to the same period last year.

After a volatile session, the metals market sees recovery

At the close of trading on September 9, the metals market saw green return after a previous downturn. For precious metals, both silver and platinum prices rebounded as the market saw a pause in new economic data. Silver closed up 1.66% to USD 28.65/ounce, while platinum rose 3.07% to USD 946.9/ounce.

After a week of volatility with new economic data, financial markets are stabilizing as investors remain confident in the potential pivot of the Federal Reserve's (FED) monetary policy. Not only did safe-haven investments like precious metals recover, but U.S. stock markets also saw gains on Monday. All three major U.S. stock indexes—Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq—recorded gains of over 1%, ending consecutive declines from previous sessions.

The market remains cautious as it awaits the release of the U.S. inflation report this week, which will be one of the last significant economic data points ahead of the FED’s two-day meeting on September 17-18.

For base metals, except for LME lead and LME tin, the prices of all other items in the group recovered during the previous trading session. COMEX copper prices increased by nearly 1.8% to USD 9,137/ton. Iron ore prices edged up 0.08% after a volatile session, closing at USD 91.77/ton.

On the one hand, iron ore prices remain under pressure due to weak consumption prospects in China. Data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics yesterday showed consumer price inflation was lower than expected in August, while deflation in the factory sector continued for the 23rd consecutive month. This reflects weak demand in the economy, threatening China’s annual growth target of 5%. As a result, the consumption outlook for steel products has also dimmed, putting downward pressure on prices.

On the other hand, iron ore prices are sensitive to China's economic stimulus measures. Thus, expectations that the Chinese government will soon introduce support measures helped iron ore prices recover slightly in yesterday's session. Experts predict that the People's Bank of China (PBOC) still has room to cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), with the earliest reduction expected as soon as September.

Source: MXV