The Mercantile Exchange Of VietNam (MXV) reported that the global commodity market experienced mixed movements during yesterday's trading session (August 14). In the agricultural sector, the prices of many products showed positive signs, with soybean meal unexpectedly surging by nearly 5% and corn prices rebounding from their lowest level in four years. Meanwhile, the energy market saw 4 out of 5 commodities experiencing price declines. However, selling pressure remained dominant, causing the MXV-Index to drop by an additional 0.24% to 2,099 points.

Corn Prices Break Out of the Lowest Level in Four Years

The agricultural market is gradually recovering from the downturn, with the prices of many commodities rebounding. Notably, soybean meal prices surged nearly 5%, ending a seven-session losing streak. Additionally, corn and wheat prices are also recovering positively.

In yesterday's trading session, corn prices rebounded from their lowest level in four years. Although the market remains under pressure due to good supply prospects in the U.S., technical buying has helped the market recover.

The Ukrainian Agrarian Council stated that the country's corn production this year could decrease to 20-21 million tons, down from 30 million tons last year if the drought continues. Most of Ukraine experienced an unusual heatwave in July, leading producers to expect a 30% reduction in late crop yields. This figure is lower than the 27 million tons predicted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. The Agrarian Council suggested that the USDA may not have fully accounted for the negative impact of weather on Ukraine's corn crop in recent months. With the expectation of a sharp decline in corn production in the major grain-exporting country in the Black Sea region, corn prices were supported in yesterday’s trading session.

Wheat prices also recorded an increase of over 1% yesterday, following the general trend of agricultural commodities. Concerns about supply conditions in the U.S. contributed to the buying pressure in the market.

In a recent weather report, the USDA indicated that rain is occurring in the eastern and central Corn Belt, but hot and dry conditions persist in the south. Some crops in the Southern Plains are under stress, which is expected to spread further in the next two weeks as higher temperatures cover the rest of the Plains and parts of the eastern Corn Belt. Wheat will be the most affected commodity by this change, which has supported prices.

Oil Prices Continue to Weaken

Contrary to the recovery and price increases in the agricultural market, the energy market experienced a downturn. Specifically, in the oil market, prices continued to weaken after inventory data showed an increase contrary to market forecasts, despite signs of easing inflation in the U.S. At the close, WTI oil prices fell 1.75% to $76.98 per barrel, and Brent crude fell 1.15% to $79.76 per barrel.

According to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 1.4 million barrels last week, contrary to market expectations of a 2.2 million barrel decrease. Earlier in the session, a report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) also indicated a sharp decline of 5.2 million barrels. Inventory data returning to an increase after six consecutive weeks of decline, contrary to market expectations, has further pressured prices.

Also hindering the rise in oil prices, the International Energy Agency (IEA) recently cut its 2025 oil demand growth estimate, citing the impact of a weakening Chinese economy on consumption. This follows OPEC's reduction in its 2024 demand forecast for similar reasons. A series of recent gloomy indicators have dampened expectations for July's economic activity in China, raising concerns about the world's second-largest economy.

Global demand for jet fuel is trending downward. Global jet fuel consumption averaged about 7.49 million barrels per day in the first seven months of the year, an increase of nearly 500,000 barrels per day compared to the same period last year, according to Goldman Sachs data. However, Goldman Sachs also noted that demand growth from August to October will likely be only around 400,000 barrels per day, suggesting that the market may not achieve the expected growth of 600,000 barrels per day for the entire year.

On the other hand, inflation in the U.S. continues to show signs of easing, a signal that has increased confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September. Specifically, U.S. consumer prices rose by 2.9% in July, falling below 3% for the first time since early 2021.

According to MXV