According to Mercantile Exchange of Vietnam (MXV), selling pressure continued to dominate the global commodity market in the first trading session of the week (October 14). Notably, in the energy sector, all items in the group saw a sharp decline, driving the overall market trend. In addition, in the agricultural market, corn and wheat prices extended their downward trend due to improved crop prospects in major producing countries. By the end of the session, the MXV-Index dropped 1.39% to 2,205 points.

Global Oil Prices Continue to Weaken

At the close of trading on October 14, the energy market was deeply in the red. Global oil prices continued to weaken in the first trading session of the week, driven by disappointing import data from China and a less optimistic outlook on global crude oil demand from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). By the end of the session, WTI crude oil fell by 2.29% to $73.83 per barrel, while Brent crude dropped 2% to $77.46 per barrel.

The market pressure emerged after OPEC lowered its estimate for global oil demand growth in its October report, marking the third consecutive cautious revision from the exporter group. Specifically, OPEC stated that oil demand growth in 2024 would reach 1.93 million barrels per day, 110,000 barrels per day lower than the previous estimate in September. China, the world's largest crude oil importer, accounted for most of the 2024 downgrade, with OPEC cutting the country's growth forecast from 650,000 barrels per day to 580,000 barrels per day.

In addition, China’s government stimulus packages seem to be failing to restore market confidence. The latest import data from the world’s top crude importer continues to reflect the current economic pressures. Data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China’s imports in September increased by only 0.3%, well below analysts' forecast of 0.9%. China's crude oil imports in the first nine months of the year also dropped by nearly 3% compared to the same period last year, down to 10.99 million barrels per day due to the increased use of electric vehicles and a slowdown in economic growth post-pandemic.

However, concerns over potential oil production disruptions in the Middle East due to Israel's possible response to Iran’s October 1st attack have eased somewhat after the U.S. called for Israel to calibrate its response to avoid a broader conflict. President Joe Biden also expressed concerns about attacks on the country's energy infrastructure.

Corn and Wheat Prices Plummet

The October 14 trading session saw red dominating the agricultural market. Corn futures for December closed the first session of the week with a 1.8% decline to $160 per ton, marking the third consecutive weakening session due to more favorable crop conditions in major producing countries.

In the U.S., dry weather in the Midwest, the country's key corn-growing region, over the past week has favored harvesting activities. This is expected to be the second-largest corn crop in U.S. history, contributing to a more abundant global corn supply next year.

Meanwhile, in South America, drought conditions have significantly improved in both Brazil and Argentina. Rainfall occurred in Brazil over the past weekend and is forecast to continue for the next 10 days, helping to restore soil moisture and boost soybean planting activities. This will also positively impact second-crop corn prospects, which accounts for more than 70% of Brazil's annual corn production, as the crops will be planted and developed within the ideal timeframe, yielding better output following a favorable soybean season.

Wheat was the most significant decliner among agricultural products, dropping 2.3% to $215 per ton. In addition to the downward pressure from corn prices and the strengthening U.S. dollar, improved weather conditions in Argentina were a major factor in the wheat price decline. The Rosario Grains Exchange (BCR) reported that prolonged rains over the past week helped prevent further wheat yield losses in Argentina, particularly in Santa Fe province, one of the country’s largest wheat-growing areas, which received rainfall ranging from 30-90 mm. This has eased market concerns over Argentina's crop outlook and exerted significant pressure on wheat prices.

Source: MXV