According to the Mercantile Exchange of Vietnam (MXV), the global raw material market continues to witness strong buying pressure, especially in the energy sector. Investors are paying special attention to the crude oil market, which has seen five consecutive sessions of gains, driving a positive trend across the entire market. Meanwhile, in the industrial raw materials market, many products have suddenly dropped in price, particularly the two coffee products. At the close, the MXV-Index increased by 0.32% to 2,259 points.

Global oil prices surge amid supply disruption risks

On the first trading day of the week (October 7), global oil prices surged amid fears of escalating conflict in the Middle East and the potential disruption of exports and production from the U.S. At the end of the session, WTI crude oil rose by 3.71% to $77.14 per barrel, while Brent crude oil increased by 3.69%, reaching $80.93 per barrel.

Tensions in the Middle East escalated after Hezbollah, an Iran-backed organization in Lebanon, launched missile attacks on the city of Haifa in Israel. Additionally, a ballistic missile attack from Yemen targeting Tel Aviv was also reported. In response, Israel appears ready to expand ground incursions into southern Lebanon. Concerns that the U.S., Israel's close ally, and direct rival of Iran, might be drawn into a larger-scale conflict have pushed oil prices higher.

Facing the situation in the Middle East, Goldman Sachs predicts that Brent oil prices could reach $90 per barrel if Iran's supply is affected by 2 million barrels per day, or $85 per barrel if the supply decreases by 1 million barrels per day. However, the bank also noted that the conflict may not affect Iran's production, and the spare supply from OPEC+ could help ease the market.

On the supply side, production activities in the Gulf of Mexico, one of the leading oil production regions in the U.S., remain on alert as Tropical Storm Milton passes through the area. The storm strengthened over the weekend and is expected to hit the west coast of Florida later this week, after passing through parts of the Gulf of Mexico. Energy giant Chevron has shut down its Blind Faith platform in the Gulf of Mexico and evacuated all staff from the area.

In response to rising oil prices, Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, has increased its official selling price to the Asian market. Saudi Aramco raised the price of Arab Light crude oil by $0.90 per barrel for November deliveries, higher than the market forecast of $0.65 per barrel, bringing the differential with the Dubai/Oman benchmark to $2.2 per barrel.

Arabica coffee prices plummet 5% to the lowest level in a month

According to MXV, by the close of trading yesterday, the prices of the two main coffee products had dropped sharply following a technical correction at the end of last week. Arabica coffee prices fell by around 5%, reaching the lowest level in a month, while Robusta coffee prices dropped nearly 4%, falling below $4,900 per ton. Expectations of rain in Brazil's main coffee-growing regions, combined with a significant increase in export figures for September, have put considerable pressure on prices.

Brazil's weather forecast agency and LESG both suggest that rain will spread from the southern region to the southeastern region, Brazil's main coffee-growing area, starting this week. Rainfall in the next 10 days could reach up to 50 mm, and temperatures are expected to cool. The shift in weather conditions could create more favorable conditions for coffee plants to grow and recover after a prolonged dry spell.

Additionally, Brazil's continued increase in coffee exports has provided reassurance about the supply stability in the market. The South American government reported that coffee bean exports in September exceeded 243,000 tons, a 36.79% increase compared to the same period in 2023. The availability of post-harvest coffee has allowed Brazil to boost exports as demand from Europe rises.

Moreover, the market continues to react to the news that the EU has proposed to delay the implementation of the EUDR law by 12 months. If this proposal is approved, exporting countries will have more time to prepare for the new requirements, while European importing countries will not need to rush to stockpile reserves.

In the domestic market, as recorded this morning (October 8), coffee prices in the Central Highlands and Southeast regions also "cooled" in line with global coffee prices, currently ranging between 114,500 - 115,100 VND/kg, down 900 - 1,000 VND/kg compared to the previous day. Compared to the beginning of October, domestic coffee prices have fallen by around 7,000 VND/kg.

 Source: MXV