The Mercantile Exchange Of VietNam (MXV) reported that by the close of trading on August 21, the MXV-Index continued its downward trend, dropping 0.18% to 2,115 points. Green was the dominant color on the industrial and metal commodities price board, while many agricultural and energy commodities saw declines. The global raw material market remains volatile.

Coffee Prices Hit New High, Extending Five-Day Winning Streak

By the end of yesterday's trading session, all nine industrial commodities saw prices rise. Among them, both types of coffee hit new highs, extending their rally to five consecutive sessions. Specifically, Arabica coffee prices increased by 0.3%, approaching the highest level in two and a half years, which was recorded in mid-July; Robusta coffee prices broke the record set in the previous session, reaching a new all-time high as it neared the $5,000/ton mark.

The market continues to react to weather risks that could affect Brazil's coffee supply outlook for the 2025-2026 season. Concerns about frost returning at the end of August have not yet subsided, and Brazilian coffee farmers are now facing drought conditions in the main coffee-growing areas. For nearly two months, many coffee-growing regions in the Southeast of Brazil have experienced no rain, and this is expected to continue into September. The lack of rain is negatively impacting the flowering of coffee plants for the 2025-2026 season, which in turn is affecting the supply outlook.

On the domestic market, as of the morning of August 22, the price of raw coffee beans in the Central Highlands and southern provinces increased by more than 1,000 VND/kg compared to yesterday, currently ranging from 119,000 to 119,800 VND/kg.

Other Notable Developments in the Industrial Commodities Market

Cocoa prices continued to rise, gaining nearly 1% amid concerns over supply shortages in major producing countries. Companies have expressed significant concerns about production levels in Ghana, the world's second-largest cocoa producer. Adverse weather conditions and disease have led the country to cautiously set a production target of 650,000 tons, down from the previously forecasted 810,000 tons.

Wheat Prices Plummet Over 2% Due to Competition from Russian Supply

Many agricultural commodities closed yesterday's trading session in the red. Wheat prices, in particular, fell sharply by over 2%. The main factor driving down CBOT wheat prices is competition from cheap Russian supply.

The Russian Ministry of Agriculture has maintained its forecast for this year's grain production at 132 million tons, including 86 million tons of wheat, despite crop losses due to adverse weather conditions. Earlier this week, consultancy IKAR reported that Russian export wheat prices reached $218/ton last week, down $3/ton from the previous week due to weak demand. Abundant and cheap supply from Russia will fiercely compete with U.S. wheat and exert significant downward pressure on wheat prices in the near future.

Meanwhile, December corn futures saw little movement, with only a slight increase. The supply outlook from South America, including Argentina and the U.S., had mixed effects on prices.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) forecasts that Argentina's corn planting area for the 2024-2025 season will reach 6.3 million hectares, down 17% from the previous season due to concerns over weather conditions and brown planthopper pests. Additionally, farmers' profit margins have been squeezed by low corn prices in recent times, reducing their willingness to plant corn. This could lead to a less favorable supply outlook for Argentina's corn in the 2024-2025 season, which has supported prices.

Meanwhile, the 2024 Crop Tour in the U.S. Midwest concluded its second day in Indiana and Nebraska with positive results. The survey estimated the average corn yield in Indiana and Nebraska at 187.54 and 173.25 bushels per acre, respectively, both higher than last year's results as well as the three-year average. This data somewhat reinforces the prospect of a bumper corn crop in the U.S., putting significant downward pressure on prices.

Source: MXV