According to the Mercantile Exchange of Vietnam (MXV), as of the close on August 27, the MXV-Index slightly decreased by 0.02% to 2,158 points. In the metals market, there was a relatively clear divergence in performance. While base metals saw fairly positive buying interest and recorded increases of 1 to 2%, precious metals, including silver and platinum, experienced a collective decline after three sessions of gains. The agricultural commodities market is recovering, with some items like corn and CBOT wheat having emerged from a weakened price range, while the prices of the two soybean products showed contrasting trends.

After Three Consecutive Gains, Precious Metal Prices Weaken

At the close of trading yesterday, there was a notable divergence in the metals market between precious metals and base metals. For precious metals, both silver and platinum saw declines after three consecutive sessions of increases, as concerns about a U.S. recession continued to ease. At the close, silver prices fell slightly by 0.09% to $29.90 per ounce, while platinum lost more than 1% to $962.80 per ounce.

According to a survey from the Conference Board, U.S. consumer confidence rose to its highest level in 6 months amid improved economic outlook. Specifically, the consumer confidence index reached 103.3 points in August, 2.4 points above the forecast and the highest since February of this year. The July figure was also revised up to 101.9 points from the previously reported 100.3 points.

Additionally, the Expectations Index, based on consumers' short-term outlook on income, business conditions, and the job market, rose to 82.5 points, the highest since August 2023. This data suggests that Americans have become less pessimistic about the economic outlook after recession concerns surged earlier this month. The easing of recession fears has reduced the demand for safe-haven assets, putting pressure on precious metal prices in yesterday's session.

For base metals, however, the market saw relatively strong buying interest, with prices recording uniform gains of 1-2%. Zinc prices on the LME extended their increase for the sixth consecutive session, rising by 1.06% to $2,943 per ton, the highest in six weeks. Recent gains in zinc prices have been driven mainly by concerns over shrinking supply following production cuts by 14 major smelting plants in China. China's zinc output is expected to continue declining this month after hitting a one-year low in July.

In other developments, iron ore prices continued to recover after two consecutive declines last weekend. At the close, iron ore prices increased by 1.25% to $101.60 per ton, reaching a three-week high. Despite weak actual consumption in China, iron ore prices have risen mainly due to expectations of improved demand as the country prepares for the peak construction season. The September-October period is typically considered a "golden time" for construction activities in China.

Soybean Market Shows Mixed Trends

At the close of yesterday's trading session, November soybean futures continued to rise, with a 0.59% increase. Buying interest was boosted right after the opening of the session, amid worsening crop conditions in the U.S. The rise in soybean prices was somewhat moderated towards the end of the session due to market profit-taking pressure.

In yesterday's Crop Progress report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) indicated that approximately 67% of the U.S. soybean crop was rated good/excellent for the week ending August 25, down 1 percentage point from the previous week and in line with market expectations. This figure reflects the impact of the recent hot and dry weather on the crops. Additionally, Commodity Weather Group forecasts that temperatures will rise at the end of this week, coupled with drought conditions that could negatively affect soybeans during their final development stage. These updates compel the market to reassess the U.S. soybean supply outlook for this year, leading to a strong bullish impact on the prices of this commodity.

COFCO, a grain company, predicts that the growth rate of soybean acreage in Brazil this year will be the lowest in a decade. Low global oilseed prices have squeezed farmers' profit margins and could reduce soybean planting. Additionally, the forecast of a returning La Niña phenomenon, which typically brings hot and dry weather to South America, is expected to impact next year's soybean production outlook in Brazil, thereby supporting prices.

The two soybean by-products exhibited quite different trends in yesterday's session. Soybean meal prices followed the trend of soybean prices and recorded a 1.3% increase. Conversely, soybean oil prices fell nearly 1% due to technical selling pressure in the market, after surging in the previous two sessions.

Source: MXV