According to data from the Mercantile Exchange Of VietNam (MXV), as of the close of trading on May 9, 23 out of the 31 globally linked commodities traded at MXV saw price increases. However, most commodities fluctuated within a narrow range, causing the MXV-Index to only slightly rise by 0.39% to 2,297 points.

Notably, all items in the metals and energy groups closed in the green. Additionally, the total trading value across the Exchange surged, exceeding 8.1 trillion VND, which is 73% higher than the previous day. The majority of the capital flow was concentrated in the agricultural group, accounting for more than 50% of the total market trading volume, and it also reached a record high.

The weakened USD leads to gains in metal prices

Ending the trading day on May 9, silver prices led the increase in the metals market. Both precious metals benefited from the weakening greenback. By the end of the day, silver regained the 28 USD mark after rising 2.77%, closing at 28.36 USD/ounce, the highest in three weeks. Platinum prices recovered by 0.63% to 990.8 USD/ounce, the highest level in nearly a month.

According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor yesterday, the number of U.S. unemployment claims reached 231,000 for the week ending May 4, which is 19,000 higher than the forecast and the highest level since August 2023. Meanwhile, the 4-week average claims increased to 215,000, the highest since February this year.

This data followed a sharp drop in U.S. payroll reports and job openings falling to a three-year low, indicating that the U.S. labor market is under pressure. The USD fell sharply after the data was released, with the Dollar Index closing down 0.3% at 105.23 points, thereby supporting precious metal prices.

For base metals, the weakening USD also supported the prices of these commodities. Moreover, optimistic economic data from China, the world's largest metal consumer, further boosted demand for base metals. By the end of the day, the prices of two key commodities, COMEX copper and iron ore, increased by 0.94% and 0.96%, respectively.

According to China's General Administration of Customs, in April, China's exports increased by 1.5% compared to the same period last year, 0.5 points higher than the forecast, and strongly rebounded from a 7.5% decline in March. Imports also surged by 8.4% in April, significantly higher than the market's forecast of a 5.4% increase and a sharp turnaround from the 1.9% decline in March.

Customs data also indicated that China's imports of copper and iron ore increased in April as the country ramped up stockpiling raw materials for the peak consumption season. Specifically, imports of unwrought and semi-finished copper reached 438,000 tons, up 7.5% from the same period last year. Meanwhile, iron ore imports reached 101.82 million tons in April, an increase of 11.35% compared to the same period last year and a 1.1% increase from the previous month.

Soybeans Extend Decline

In the agricultural market, the soybean group led the downturn. This commodity continued its downward trend on May 9, dropping by 1.57%, marking the third consecutive day of closing in the red. The outlook for international demand for U.S. supplies is gradually stabilizing, combined with the return of positive signals regarding South American supply, which has driven selling pressure in the market.

Specifically, in the Export Sales report released last night, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported that U.S. soybean sales for the 2023-2024 season reached 428,898 tons in the week ending May 2, up slightly by 3.6% from the previous week and still within market expectations. However, cumulative soybean exports since the beginning of the season are still 17.3% lower than the previous season, at 41.91 million tons. This indicates that U.S. supply is under significant competitive pressure from Brazil.

Meanwhile, the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (Abiove) has raised its forecast for Brazil's soybean production for the 2023-2024 season to 153.9 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from April. In Rio Grande do Sul state, before recent heavy rains caused flooding, farmers had harvested about 75% of the soybean area with a record production of 22 million tons. This figure also represents a significant 68% increase compared to the previous season, alleviating some concerns about supply in Brazil.

On the domestic market, following the global trend, as of the morning of May 9, the asking price for South American soybean meal arriving at Vietnamese ports adjusted slightly downward. In the Northern region, at Cai Lan port, the asking price for soybean meal for delivery in Q2 this year ranged from 13,050 to 13,350 VND/kg. Meanwhile, at Vung Tau port, the asking price for South American soybean meal was between 12,950 and 13,200 VND/kg.

Source: MXV