Corn

CFTC’s Commitment of Traders data shows speculators cutting an additional 4,000 contracts from their net short position in corn futures and options, now down to 130,000 contracts. Commercial traders added over 5,000 contracts to their net short position, bringing it to 108,000 contracts.

The average estimate from a Reuters survey for corn stocks as of September 1 is over 1 billion bushels. This would be significantly higher than last year, as expected, and up 32 million bushels compared to the September WASDE 2023/24 ending stocks forecast.

Algeria purchased a total of 240,000 tons of corn in a recent tender, likely to be imported from Argentina or Brazil. Ukraine’s corn production for the 2024/25 season is estimated at 25.8 million tons according to their Ministry of Agriculture, lower than USDA’s estimate of 27.2 million tons.

The December Corn Contract settlement price on September 27 was 418 cents per bushel, unchanged from the previous week.

Soybeans

CFTC data showed managed money slashing 47,000 contracts from their net short position in soybean futures and options, now down to just over 74,000 contracts as of September 24. Commercial traders flipped their position back to net short with 7,000 contracts, a 44,000-contract shift to the short side, mainly through additional short positions.

Remnants of former Hurricane Helene in parts of the upper Southeast will help replenish lower water levels on the Mississippi River as the U.S. gears up for the peak soybean shipping season.

USDA will release their quarterly Grain Stocks report on Monday, with a Reuters survey of analysts expecting 351 million bushels of soybeans in storage as of September 1. This would be significantly higher than last year and 11 million bushels above the September WASDE projection.

USDA also reported a private export sale of 20,000 tons of soybean oil to South Korea via their daily reporting system.

The settlement price on September 27 was 1,065 cents per bushel, up 2% from last week’s session.

Wheat

The Commitment of Traders report showed Chicago wheat specs adding 1,000 contracts to their net short position as of September 24, bringing it to over 26,000 contracts. In Kansas City wheat (KC), they added 2,000 contracts to their net short, reaching nearly 20,000 contracts.

On Monday, USDA will release the annual Small Grains Summary, with analysts expecting total wheat production to reach nearly 2 billion bushels, a 16 million bushel cut from the previous update in the August Crop Production report. Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat production is projected to drop by 8 mbu to 768 mbu, while Soft Red Winter (SRW) output is expected to remain steady at 342 mbu, and White Winter is forecast to increase by 1 mbu to 244 mbu, according to the Reuters survey.

Spring wheat is pegged at 540 mbu, down 4 mbu from August, and Durum wheat is projected to drop by 1 mbu to 76 mbu.

FranceAgriMer estimates French soft wheat planting at 1% as of September 23. The European Commission estimates EU wheat production at 114.6 million tons, down 1.5 million tons from the previous month.

They have trimmed ending stocks by 0.8 million tons to 11.7 million tons. Ukraine’s agriculture minister estimates the 2024/25 wheat crop at 21.8 million tons, compared to the USDA’s September WASDE estimate of 22.3 million tons.

The December 2024 Wheat Contract settlement price on September 27 was 580 cents per bushel, unchanged from the previous week.

Source: Compiled