Corn

Friday afternoon’s Commitment of Traders report did show the managed money spec funds cutting back their record large net short position in corn, ever so slightly.  They reduced it by 10,587 contracts in the week ending July 16, leaving them net short 343,936 contracts.

Thursday’s Export Sales report took the full year export sale commitments to 54.71 MMT, which is 97% of the USDA recently updated export forecast. Normally, we’d be 102% of that number by now. Shipments from the report for the 2023/24 marketing year are 46.16 MMT, 82% of the projected total and 7% behind the normal pace despite being well ahead of last year’s underperforming program.

Soybean

USDA reported another sale of 105,000 MT of meal to unknown destinations for 2024/25 this morning under the daily reporting system but that failed to move the market.

Weekly Export Sales brought the 2023/24 MY to 45.36 MMT, which is 98% of the USDA projected full year export total. That is below the 103% average pace for this date. New crop sales have accumulated to 2.07 MMT, which is the lowest for the respective week in the marketing year in 20 years. This week’s large sale will help. Some Chinese buying is rumored for Oct-Nov, but they appear to have very comfortable stocks for the next 60-90 days.

Safras & Mercado expected the Brazilian soybean crop to be 151.5 MMT this year, with a forward looking projection for the 2024/25 crop at 171.5 MMT.

CFTC showed the commercial sector adding 20,369 contracts to their net long in the week ending July 16.  Managed money spec funds were on the other side of those trades, expanding their net short 13,145 contracts during the week to -185,750 contracts.

Wheat

Following USDA’s Export Sales report from Thursday, US export commitments for wheat are now 35% of the full year USDA projection at 7.76 MMT, 1% ahead of the average pace. Actual shipments to date are 2.2 MMT, 9% of that forecast and 1% below the 5-year average.

FranceAgriMer estimates the French soft wheat crop at 52% gd/ex, a 5% drop from the week prior. Last year was 80%. The crop is now 14% harvested, compared to 51% last year and an average at 43%.

The Friday afternoon Commitment of Traders report from CFTC showed the managed money spec funds drifting more bearish during the week,  adding 6,749 contracts to their Chicago net short and 3,085 contracts to their net short in KC HRW futures during the week ending July 16.

Source: Barchart