The July WASDE report reveals that U.S. old crop corn inventories are approximately 1.9 billion bushels, a decrease of 145 million bushels from June. For the new crop, the USDA has cut the inventory forecast by 5 million bushels, leaving it near 2.1 billion bushels.

Globally, Brazil's corn production for the 2023/24 season is forecasted at 122 million tons, unchanged from last month. This figure is higher than CONAB's estimate of 115.58 million tons but lower than Safras & Mercado's estimate of 125.56 million tons. For the 2024/25 season, the USDA maintains its forecast at 127 million tons, while Safras' estimate is 134.92 million tons. The USDA has reduced its forecast for Argentina's 2023/24 corn production by 1 million tons to 52 million tons. Global ending stocks have been reduced by 3.26 million tons to 309.13 million tons.

The CFTC report released on Friday showed that speculative funds expanded their record net short position to 353,983 contracts for the week ending July 9, an increase of 17,445 contracts from the previous week. In contrast, commercial funds bought a record 62,665 contracts.

Following the report, September corn futures prices increased. The settlement price on July 12 was 402 cents per bushel, up 0.44% from the previous trading session.

For U.S. soybeans, the WASDE report notes that ending stocks for the old crop are expected to decrease to 345 million bushels due to reduced imports. Stocks for the new crop are also revised down by 20 million bushels to 435 million bushels.

The USDA maintains its soybean production estimate for Brazil at 153 million tons, while CONAB holds its estimate at 147.33 million tons. The production forecast for the 2024/25 season is set at 169 million tons, compared to Safras & Mercado’s initial estimate of 171.54 million tons. Argentina’s soybean production forecast has been reduced to 49.5 million tons. Global soybean stocks for the 2023/24 season are projected to increase to 111.25 million tons, with the new season’s estimate at 127.76 million tons.

Speculative funds held record net short positions of 172,605 contracts for the week ending July 9, an increase of 31,679 contracts from the previous week.

Reuters’ survey for the NOPA report on July 15 indicates that approximately 178 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in June. If accurate, this would represent an increase of nearly 8% year-over-year and a record high for the month. Soybean oil reserves are estimated to be close to 1.7 billion pounds at the end of June.

Customs data show that China’s soybean imports in June were 11.11 million tons, up from 10 million tons last year. For the first half of 2024, China has imported 48.48 million tons, down more than 2% compared to the same period last year.

September soybean futures prices continued to decline. The settlement price on July 12 was 1,058.5 cents per bushel, down 0.5% from the previous session.

The USDA's supply and demand update for the U.S. wheat 2023/24 season reports ending stocks at 702 million bushels and export volumes at 707 million bushels. Stocks for the new crop have been revised up by 98 million bushels to 856 million bushels, partly due to higher carryover stocks and also increased production.

Global wheat stocks are forecasted to rise by nearly 5 million tons to 257.24 million tons, largely due to increases from the U.S., Canada, and Argentina.

The CFTC’s weekly report shows that speculative traders in CBOT wheat held net short positions of 69,137 contracts as of July 9, a decrease of 4,837 contracts from the previous week. For Kansas wheat, they reduced their positions by 2,292 contracts to 40,811 contracts as of July 9.

September wheat futures prices fell significantly. The settlement price on July 12 was 550.75 cents per bushel, down 3.6% from the previous session.