Corn

The much-awaited USDA Crop Production report showed national yield pegged at 183.1 bpa according to the NASS survey, up 2.1 bpa from the July WASDE. Acreage, however, was cut by 0.8 million acres to 90.7 million planted acres, with harvested down 0.7 to 82.71 million. That only raised production by 47 mbu to 15mbu. FSA data showed 89.104 million acres of plant and fail corn acres, for 2024 as of August 9. It must be noted, that not all acres are enrolled to the FSA causing NASS numbers to run high in comparison.  Prevent plant acres total 2.67 million acres for corn by that date.

Old crop US stocks were trimmed by 10 mbu, as a 25 mbu increase to exports was partially offset by a 15 mbu cut to FSI. That helped to limit some of the damage to the new crop balance sheet, which saw stocks down 24 mbu.

World new crop stocks were down more than 1.4 MMT to 310.17 MMT mainly on the US number. Old crop production for Argentina was down 2 MMT to 50 MMT, as Brazil was left unchanged at 122 MMT.

USDA reported a sale of 165,000 MT of corn to unknown destinations for 2024/25 shipment this morning. Export Inspections data showed 974,667 MT (38.37 mbu) of corn shipped in the week that ended on August 8. That was well above the same week last year, as accumulated shipments totaled 48.92 MMT (1.925 bbu).

Corn prices surged in the early week session. The settlement price for the September Corn contract on August 12th was 383.25 cents per bushel, up 1.73% compared to the last session of the previous week.

Soybean

The US soybean production total was the bear in the room for the USDA, as yield was up 1.2 bpa to 53.2 bpa, and acreage was up 1 million planted acres at 87.1 million. That boosted production to a record 4.589 bbu, up 154 mbu from last month. FSA data pegged 86.046 million soybean acres (normally light vs. NASS due to some acres not enrolled with FSA) enrolled by August 9 and 775,000 acres of prevent plant. 

Carryout for the old crop was left unchanged at 345 mbu. The same was not said for new crop and the large production total that raised the carryout by 125 mbu to 560 mbu. 

On the world stage, Argentina 2023/24 production was down 0.5 MMT to 49 MMT, as Brazil was left at 153 MMT. The new crop South American numbers were left alone but the world stocks total was up 6.5 MMT to 134.3 MMT, mainly due to the US.  

USDA reported an export sale announcement of 300,000 MT of soybeans this morning to unknown destinations, with 100,000 MT old crop sold and 200,000 MT sold for new crop. Inspections data from FGIS showed 326,546 MT (12 mbu) of soybeans shipped in the week of 8/8. That was 22.4% above last week but down 21.9% from a year ago. Marketing year shipments are at 43.36 MMT (1.594 bbu), a 15.3% drop from the same period last year.

Soybean prices plummeted in the early week session. The settlement price for the September Soybean contract on August 12th was 971.25 cents per bushel, down 1.77% compared to the previous session.

Wheat

USDA’s Crop Production report from this morning showed a drop to overall US wheat output of 26 million bushels to 1.982 billion bushels. Most of that was due to a smaller spring wheat crop, down 34 mbu from the July report, with durum down 13 mbu. Winter wheat production was up 20 mbu from the previous month, mainly from HRW and white.

Overall, the tighter crop did shrink the US balance sheet by 28 mbu to 828 mbu. On the world side, the carryout was down 0.62 MMT, as a 2 MMT reduction to the EU production was offset by a 2.1 MMT increase to Ukraine and 1 MMT to Australia. 

Wheat export inspections data showed a large 649,199 MT of wheat shipped for the week that ended on August 8. That was more than double the same week last year, as MY exports have totaled 4.219 MMT, 26.7% above last year. Egypt’s GASC purchased just 280,000 MT of wheat in their tender on Monday, with the origins split by 180,000 MT of Ukrainian and 100,000 MT Bulgarian wheat. 

Wheat prices declined again. The settlement price for the September Wheat contract on August 12th was 536.75 cents per bushel, down 1.06% compared to the previous session.

Source: Barchart