Corn

Ethanol production reached 1.08 million barrels per day during the week ending September 6, an increase of 19 thousand barrels per day compared to the previous week. Weekly stocks increased by 360 thousand barrels, bringing the total to 23.714 million barrels. Refinery ethanol input decreased by 41 thousand barrels per day, down to 892 thousand barrels per day. Ethanol exports rose again by 86 thousand barrels per day, reaching 177 thousand barrels per day during the week.

The export sales forecast tonight for new crop sales is expected to be between 700 thousand and 1.6 million tons for the week ending September 5, according to a Reuters survey of analysts.

Ahead of the USDA report, U.S. ending stocks are projected to decrease by 8 million bushels to 1.859 billion bushels for old crop figures. According to a Bloomberg survey, new crop figures are expected to decline by 41 million bushels to 2.032 billion bushels, mainly due to lower estimated production. Globally, traders estimate total ending stocks will drop by 0.8 million tons to 309.4 million tons.

Corn prices saw a slight recovery during the session on September 11. Specifically, the December Corn contract settled at 404.75 cents per bushel, down more than 0.5% compared to the previous session.

Soybeans

Weekly export sales for new crop soybeans are expected to range from 900 thousand to 1.6 million tons for the week ending September 5. Soybean meal sales are estimated to be between 200 thousand and 650 thousand tons during that week, with soybean oil orders expected to total between 0 and 20 thousand tons.

The WASDE report is expected to show a slight reduction in U.S. old crop soybean production, with the Bloomberg survey averaging 343 million bushels from analysts. New crop ending stocks are projected to increase by 8 million bushels to 568 million bushels. World ending stocks for the 2024/25 season are forecast at 134 million tons, a reduction of 0.3 million tons compared to the previous month.

The November Soybean contract also saw a slight recovery. The settlement price on September 11 was 1,000.5 cents per bushel, up 0.33% from the previous session.

Wheat

Wheat export sales for the week ending September 5 are expected to reach between 300 thousand and 550 thousand tons. There are concerns about crop harvests in the Kursk region of Russia due to ongoing conflict between Russian and Ukrainian forces.

Wheat production data is unlikely to change this month, as the USDA awaits the Small Grains Summary report. However, there will be updates to the balance sheet for any necessary adjustments. Bloomberg’s survey of analysts indicates a reduction of 6 million bushels, bringing U.S. ending wheat stocks to 822 million bushels. World ending stocks are forecast to be cut by 1.2 million tons, down to 255.4 million tons.

The December Wheat contract continued to rise, with the settlement price on September 11 at 579.25 cents per bushel, up 0.87% from the previous session.

Source: Barchart