Corn

Corn futures settled 2 to 2 ½ cents lower on Friday. Position squaring ahead of Monday’s USDA reports was a major feature, with trade estimates showing most analysts expecting to see an increase to US average yield.

The CFTC Commitment of Traders report this afternoon showed commercial (PMPU) traders had finally returned to a net short position of 38,605 contracts as of August 6. The managed money spec funds trimmed their net short position by 52,551 contracts in the reporting week, leaving them net short 242,545 contracts. 

Estimates ahead of next Monday’s WASDE report show old crop corn stocks expected to be unchanged at 1.877 bbu. New crop estimates are calling for a minimal change, with the average at 2.096 bbu, up 1 mbu from July, though the range is wide at 1.897 bbu to 2.285 bbu.

Corn prices continued to decline. The settlement price for the September Corn contract on August 9 was 376.75 cents per bushel, down 0.66% from the previous session.

Soybean

USDA reported a couple different export sale announcements this morning, with 132,000 MT of new crop sold to China and 212,000 MT of soybeans sold to unknown during the ‘reporting period’ (50,000 MT for old crop and 162,000 MT for new crop). There was also a total of 100,000 MT of bean meal sold to Columbia, with 12,000 MT for 2023/24 and 88,000 MT for 2024/25.

The monthly WASDE report on Monday is expected to show soybean stocks for old crop soybeans rising 5 mbu to 350 mbu. New crop estimates are running 465 mbu on average, up 30 mbu, mainly on expected production increases.  The range of new crop stocks estimates is still wide at 380 to 555 mbu. 

This afternoon’s Commitment of Traders report showed that as of Tuesday, the managed money spec funds were still net short 169,016 contracts of soybean futures and options. That was a reduction of 9,575 contracts for the reporting week. 

The September Soybean contract also extended its losing streak, with a settlement price of 988.75 cents per bushel on August 9, down 0.48% from the previous session

Wheat

The monthly WASDE report will be out on Monday, with the trade showing expectations for a slight increase to all wheat ending stocks from July at 859 mbu, up 3 mbu. That would likely come from an expected hike to production. 

This afternoon’s Commitment of Traders report showed speculative funds in Chicago SRW futures were net short 71,332 contracts as of August 6. That was 6,284 contracts less bearish than the previous week.

France’s Ag Ministry cut the country crop estimate by 3.3 MMT to 26.3 MMT. FranceAgriMer also reported 88% of the country’s harvest now complete. The crop was rated at 48% gd/ex another 2% drop from the week prior.

In contrast, the September Wheat contract saw a rebound, with a settlement price of 542.5 cents per bushel on August 9, up 0.93% from the previous session.

Source: Barchart