Soybeans

The September soybean futures contract ended the session higher, approaching $15.25 per bushel, fluctuating between $14.83 and $15.37 per bushel. The market is closely watching the September USDA report and weather conditions in the U.S. Midwest over the next two weeks, which will influence price levels. The August USDA report indicated higher soybean production than expected, with U.S. ending stocks for the 2021/22 season increased to 10 million bushels due to reduced exports. The 2022 soybean crop is estimated at 4.531 billion bushels, up from 4.435 billion bushels the previous year. The projected ending stocks for the 2022/23 season are 245 million bushels. Global ending stocks for the 2022/23 season are estimated at 101.4 million tons, up from 89.7 million tons last year, with the increase attributed to South American crops. The USDA maintains its estimate for Chinese soybean imports at 98 million tons for 2022/23, up from 90 million tons last year. The global soybean crush estimate for 2022/23 remains near a record high of 327 million tons, compared to 323 million tons last year, with exports forecasted at 169 million tons, up from 153 million tons the previous year.

Corn

Corn futures also ended higher, with the September contract close to $6.39 per bushel, ranging from $6.16 to $6.40, and the December contract near $6.42 per bushel. The USDA's report revealed a reduction in U.S. corn yields for 2022, with 2021/22 ending stocks increased due to lower feed and seed use. The U.S. corn yield for August was lower than expected and below survey levels of the past three years. The 2021/22 U.S. corn crop is now estimated at 14.359 billion bushels, down from 15.115 billion bushels last year, with ending stocks for 2022/23 projected at 1.388 billion bushels. The reduced crop is offset by lower feed use and exports. The USDA estimates 2022/23 ending stocks at 306.8 million tons, down from 311.8 million tons last year. The decrease is attributed to lower stocks in the U.S. and EU, with the EU's corn supply reduced from 68 million tons to 60 million tons, and some estimates as low as 50 million tons. U.S. feed use for corn in 2021/22 is estimated at 5.6 billion bushels, compared to 5.603 billion bushels last year. Ethanol production use for 2022/23 is estimated at 5.375 billion bushels. USDA projects 2021/22 corn exports at 2.45 billion bushels, down from 2.747 billion bushels last year, with 2022/23 exports forecasted at 2.375 billion bushels, a reduction of 25 million bushels.

Wheat

The September wheat contract closed at $8.06 per bushel. Following the USDA report, wheat futures briefly fell back to a 20-day low near $7.93 per bushel but generally remained in the range of $7.50 to $8.50 per bushel. The USDA's August report estimates U.S. wheat production at 1.783 billion bushels, up slightly from the previous estimate of 1.781 billion bushels and compared to 1.646 billion bushels last year. USDA has lowered its forecast for U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2022/23 to 29 million bushels due to higher exports. The global ending stocks for wheat in 2022/23 are estimated at 267.3 million tons, down from 276.3 million tons last year. The USDA increased its forecast for Russian wheat production to 88 million tons and exports to 42 million tons. Russian wheat exports in July were 1.7 million tons, down from 5.7 million tons last year. The USDA also reduced its forecast for EU wheat production by 2 million tons to 132.1 million tons, while increasing China's forecast by 3 million tons to 138 million tons. The forecast for Indian wheat production was lowered by 3 million tons to 103 million tons, but exports remain unchanged at 6.5 million tons.