Professor Vo Tong Xuan notes that Vietnamese rice has shown improvement thanks to new varieties, a feature that Thai and Indian rice do not possess. For the Vietnamese rice industry to develop sustainably and long-term, it needs to diversify rice varieties, with each enterprise having its own source of raw materials.

"Rice prices in 2024 will continue to remain high."

At the seminar “Long-Term Solutions for Rice Export” on January 9, Vietnamese agricultural expert Professor Vo Tong Xuan recalled the event when ST25 rice won the World's Best Rice award in 2019 in the Philippines. At that time, he asserted that Vietnamese rice was not inferior to Thai rice.

"Vietnam has been producing rice since 1860 and has exported rice, but primarily worked with regional traders rather than exporting directly. Currently, there are many European traders from France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Hong Kong, Macau, etc., who have divided rice exports into two categories. One is aromatic, long-grain rice from Thailand; and the other is white rice, which is also good."

Vietnamese white rice is exported at approximately $250 - $300 per ton, while Thai aromatic rice is priced at $800 - $900. This is because they know Thailand produces rice only once a year during the rainy season with low yield, so they have to buy it at $800," said Professor Vo Tong Xuan.

According to the expert, Vietnamese rice can currently be sold for $600 - $700 per ton, or even higher than Thai rice due to new rice varieties. Although the price is lower, the rice is still high-quality. Thai short-duration rice is not as aromatic as Vietnamese rice. This is not necessarily because India or Thailand is affected by climate change but because Vietnamese rice has improved due to new varieties, which Thai and Indian rice lack. Thus, rice prices in 2024 will continue to remain high.

In agreement, Mr. Pham Thai Binh, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Trung An High-Tech Agriculture Joint Stock Company (HNX: TAR), confirmed that Vietnamese rice prices being higher than Thai rice is not due to luck.

"In 2024, rice prices could be better as Vietnam takes advantage of market opportunities, with demand still high. The global rice shortage and Vietnam's relatively lesser impact from climate change could lead to increased production. This is not just a golden opportunity but also reflects internal strength.

The higher price of Vietnamese rice compared to Thai rice is not a fluke but is due to real investment. Vietnam surpasses Thailand in terms of short-duration, high-quality rice varieties," Mr. Binh said.

What Are the Long-Term Solutions for the Vietnamese Rice Industry?

At the seminar, Mr. Le Thanh Tung, Deputy Director of the Department of Crop Production (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development), and Vice Chairman and Secretary General of the Vietnam Rice Association, mentioned that in 2023, the government did not impose a rice export ban amidst international market tensions, proving that Vietnam still ensures domestic food security while increasing exports.

In 2023, rice farmers in various regions achieved double benefits with lower input costs and higher rice prices. However, Mr. Tung believes that 2024 is unpredictable.

"If rice prices decrease as in 2021-2022, farmers should still benefit. I hope that if rice prices reach $1,000 per ton, both farmers and businesses will make a profit. All elements in the supply chain must benefit, even though fairness has not yet been achieved," Mr. Tung expressed.

Overall, Mr. Tung assessed that Vietnam has significantly improved its rice varieties, with ST25 being a milestone. The plan for 1 million hectares of high-quality specialized rice cultivation, mechanization, good varieties, and production processes such as organic, GlobalGAP, VietGAP, and linkage issues are solutions for quality rice.

In the context of global rice shortages, Vietnam is ready to supply at market prices. However, Mr. Tung noted that farmers in the Mekong Delta are producing rice with many requirements to ensure food security but not necessarily income security.

Regarding rice exports, the main issue remains the farmers, Mr. Tung emphasized, whether Vietnam exports rice at $600 or $1,000 per ton, the primary effort is from the farmers. Additionally, there is the contribution of enterprises, resources, and infrastructure...

Meanwhile, Professor Vo Tong Xuan pointed out current issues such as businesses competing for purchases and sales. The reason is that Vietnam lacks a floor price for rice exports, so on one hand, traders put down high deposits to buy rice from farmers, while on the other hand, businesses without their own raw material sources want to sell rice and purchase at lower prices than traders.

Due to the lack of a floor price, businesses may want to sell at one price, but international traders say another business is selling at a lower price. To solve this problem, Professor Xuan suggests that businesses should sign one-year or multi-year contracts to prepare. Vietnam, not affected by climate change, always has rice, so companies should reserve spots in advance and sign contracts between farmers and businesses.

To address current issues, this expert suggests that the market needs to be organized, dividing rice share for export or domestic sales. By doing so, businesses will gradually stop competing for purchases and sales, with each having its own source of raw materials. This is the future path for Vietnamese rice to continue developing sustainably.

According to Mr. Pham Thanh Binh, Chairman of the Board of Directors of TAR, the long-term solution for the Vietnamese rice industry is the "large fields" approach, which means linking businesses and farmers for mutual benefit; the 1 million-hectare high-quality, low-emission rice project will be successful if implemented, leading to profits for farmers and businesses.

Regarding building a brand for Vietnamese rice, Mr. Phung Van Thanh, Trade Counselor of Vietnam in the Philippines, stated that Vietnam is the number one rice partner of the Philippines. Vietnamese rice is of good quality and reasonably priced for all income levels in that country. However, this is a past advantage. Currently, Vietnamese rice prices are high, so competitiveness must be reassessed.

According to Mr. Thanh, the Philippine market still has significant potential for Vietnamese rice to exploit. Vietnamese enterprises have long-standing relationships with import partners there and are geographically close to the Philippines. Therefore, it is necessary to plan production areas according to market demand and link raw material regions. Vietnamese rice exporters should maintain the Philippine market while expanding into new markets.

Source: Vietstock