Data from the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV) shows that the global raw material market received positive buying pressure yesterday (March 29). The MXV-Index increased by 0.95% to 2,238 points, the highest in the last four months. The total trading value on the Exchange exceeded VND 6,100 billion, up 21.6%. Notably, the cash flow into the agricultural sector surged by 210%, accounting for 36% of the total trading value on the Exchange. The energy sector led the market trend yesterday, with all five commodities increasing in price.

Corn Prices Soar by 3.6%

According to MXV, the trading session yesterday saw a predominance of green on the agricultural commodity price board. Corn prices surged by 3.57% after four consecutive weakening sessions, marking the highest closing level since mid-February. Data on the US crop situation released by the USDA last night drove the price increase.

Specifically, according to the 2024 Planting Intentions Report, the US plans to plant over 90 million acres of corn, significantly down from 94.64 million acres last year. This figure is also much lower than the market's prediction of 91.78 million acres and the USDA's previous estimate of 91 million acres. This unexpected factor immediately pushed corn prices higher after the USDA's report was released. Since mid-2023, corn prices have continuously declined due to global supply pressures, resulting in much lower production profits in the US compared to the past three years. This has reduced farmers' motivation to produce, leading to market expectations of a less optimistic US crop outlook.

Additionally, the USDA also announced that US corn stock as of March 1 stood at 8.35 million bushels, lower than the 8.43 million forecasted by analysts before the report. This discrepancy is due to a significant improvement in US export activities during the first quarter of this year. Both reports last night reflected the narrowing of available supply and the upcoming US crop outlook, which is why corn prices recorded the strongest increase since September 2023.

In the domestic market, as of the morning of March 28, imported South American corn prices to our ports slightly decreased. At Cai Lan port, South American corn for April delivery was at VND 6,400/kg. For May delivery, the offer price ranged from VND 6,200 to VND 6,350/kg. Meanwhile, the offer price of imported corn at Vung Tau port was recorded 50 VND/kg lower than the trading price at Cai Lan port.

**Oil Prices Surge to a 5-Month High**

Yesterday's trading session saw all five energy commodities rise, leading the overall market trend. Oil prices surged to their highest levels in five months. At the close, WTI oil prices increased by 2.24% to USD 83.17 per barrel. Brent oil rose by 1.86% to USD 87 per barrel. Tight supply alongside positive US economic growth contributed to boosted expectations for oil consumption, supporting oil prices during the session.

After two adjustments, official data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that US GDP growth in Q4 2023 increased by 3.4% compared to the previous quarter, higher than the figures published in the two preliminary reports. Thus, the world's largest economy ended 2023 with strong growth despite forecasts of a mild recession.

The US real GDP grew by 2.5% in 2023, in line with preliminary reports and up from 1.9% in 2022. Positive growth signals in the US, despite the high-interest-rate environment, have strengthened future gasoline consumption expectations. Oil prices surged noticeably after the report was published.

In terms of demand, March consumption in Asia also showed signs of recovery as data compiled by LSEG Oil Research indicated that Asia's total oil imports reached the highest level in 10 months, at approximately 27.48 million barrels per day.

Meanwhile, supply continued to show signs of tightening. This remains the main factor pushing oil prices higher. Investors will be watching for signals from next week's meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). This group has been quite successful in boosting oil prices through production-limiting policies.

Leading trader Gunvor Group forecasts that global oil prices may rise to USD 90 per barrel, while Trafigura stated that the price focus has shifted to "upside risk." On Wall Street, JPMorgan even warned that Brent oil prices could reach USD 100 per barrel if Russia adheres to its new commitment to shift the focus of cuts from exports to production.

Source: MXV